Low abstention and a tight race at the polls. Older, urban and university-educated voters decide the presidential election

Original text from the newspaper ECO

On 17 January 2026, the newspaper ECO published an article on the presidential election that anticipated one of the closest races ever and a fall in abstention compared with 2021, when it reached a record high. The analysis draws on a Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation study coordinated by João Cancela and José Santana-Pereira.

According to José Santana-Pereira, a researcher at CIES-Iscte, turnout in presidential elections depends above all on how competitive the race is perceived to be: when no incumbent is running, mobilisation tends to be higher. He also notes that older voters vote more consistently, while young people, lower social classes and those without higher education participate less.

The study also shows that turnout is higher in urban and coastal areas and that the distance to the polling station affects the decision to vote.

Read the full article in ECO.