New study examines the decline of social democracy in Portugal

The Portuguese Socialist Party (PS), often regarded as an exception to the decline of social democratic parties across Western Europe, has recently shown signs of vulnerability. This is the starting point of the article Narratives of social democracy’s demise: insights from the Portuguese case, by Ana Espírito-Santo, Sofia Serra-Silva and Nelson Santos, published open access in South European Society and Politics.

Drawing on the Integrated Election Study dataset from the Portuguese Electoral Behaviour programme (CEP), which brings together post-election surveys of Portuguese legislative elections between 2002 and 2024, the authors divide PS voters into three groups – loyal voters, defectors and incoming voters – and compare the profile of defectors with the dominant narratives about the crisis of social democracy.

The findings show that the PS’s resilience rests on a stable base of loyal voters, which has shielded it from the mobilisation crises faced by many of its European counterparts. Nevertheless, the study identifies two patterns of defection: towards the radical left, among younger, more educated and progressive voters, driven mainly by cultural concerns; and, more recently, towards the radical right, linked to the economic concerns of younger voters. The 2024 election marked a turning point, with losses in every direction and, for the first time, significant losses to Chega without any compensating gains.

The authors conclude that both cultural and economic dimensions matter for the strategies of social democratic parties, particularly among younger voters, as a path towards renewal.

Read the full article here.