{"id":56057,"date":"2026-11-09T00:20:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T00:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/?p=56057"},"modified":"2026-11-09T00:20:33","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T00:20:33","slug":"lula-victory-anti-bolsonarism-public-policies-leadership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/lula-victory-anti-bolsonarism-public-policies-leadership\/","title":{"rendered":"Lula\u2019s victory in Brazil: anti-Bolsonarism, the defence of public policies and political leadership"},"content":{"rendered":"

Lula\u2019s victory in Brazil: anti-Bolsonarism, the defence of public policies and political leadership<\/h1>\n

By Carla Almeida, L\u00edgia L\u00fcchmann and Carla Giani Martelli<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Aerial
\nPhoto: Daniel Frias \/ M\u00eddia NINJA (CC BY-NC 4.0)<\/em><\/p>\n

Lula\u2019s victory in the second round of Brazil\u2019s 2026 elections has already prompted countless analyses, even though it took place less than a month ago. Given its importance on the world stage, until now marked by the advance of the far right and by disputes over the future of democracies, it will no doubt go on fuelling many debates. A central aspect highlighted in these analyses is the link between the intense digital mobilisation led by Andr\u00e9 Janones, re-elected as a Federal Deputy (Rede), through the WhatsApp group \u201cLula\u2019s Army\u201d, and the large street demonstrations, initially called by students. The combination of online activism and street activism in the second round was striking!<\/p>\n

Without claiming to exhaust the explanations for Lula\u2019s victory, we highlight three vectors that sustained the mobilisations: anti-Bolsonarism, the defence of public policies and Lula\u2019s own leadership. The link between activism on the streets and on social networks did not merely give visibility to those vectors. It also extended their reach, enabling support to multiply on a strikingly massive and capillary scale. Although this relationship of mutual reinforcement is fundamental to understanding the election result, our focus here is on the vectors that sustained the process.<\/p>\n

First, anti-Bolsonarism, which proved larger in Brazilian society than anti-PT sentiment, formed one of the foundations of the mobilisations. Its strength can be understood through its capacity to bring together people who, although they do not share a political ideology, converge in rejecting the practices and values associated with Bolsonarism. The mobilisations managed to convey the idea that voting for Lula did not require allegiance to the PT (Workers\u2019 Party) or full agreement with his government, but meant preventing the return of a form of political conduct identified with aggressiveness and disregard for the suffering of others. In this regard, focus group research identified significant reactions among part of society to Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s conduct in the televised debates with Lula. Guided by the \u201ccoach\u201d Pablo Mar\u00e7al and by Deputy N\u00edcolas Ferreira (Liberal Party), the disrespect shown towards Lula by then-candidate Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro seems, for parts of society, to have crossed the acceptable limits of electoral confrontation. The attacks struck a figure whose path as a worker and whose age gave those scenes a particular meaning. The aggressiveness was interpreted as an affront to experiences and conditions with which many people identify. In this context, the attempt to belittle Lula fostered solidarity with him and reinforced rejection of his opponent. For part of Brazilian society, it became intolerable to bring into the public sphere the mockery and contempt that are often expressed in private, in the form of \u201cjokes\u201d, towards vulnerable groups. People who disagree on a range of political issues can share the expectation that electoral competition should preserve limits of respect and civility in the public sphere.<\/p>\n

Rejection of Bolsonarism also found expression in the fear that a victory for Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro would open the way to genuine democratic erosion. This fear rested on the fact that the candidate\u2019s party, the Liberal Party (PL), already held the largest bloc in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate. Added to this was the prospect that the next president will appoint three new justices to the Federal Supreme Court (STF), replacing those due to retire compulsorily during the term, which would increase the president\u2019s influence over the Court.<\/p>\n

For this reason, anti-Bolsonarism deserves its own research agenda. While support for the PT, anti-PT sentiment and Bolsonarism have already received significant attention, understanding the composition and motivations of those who mobilise against Bolsonarism may reveal important grounds for political rapprochement in Brazilian society. It remains to be investigated to what extent these positions express a circumstantial reaction or the formation of more lasting commitments.<\/p>\n

The defence of public policies was the second vector of mobilisation. If, in 2022, the protection of democracy was central to bringing different groups together around Lula, in 2026 we suggest it was the defence of public policies and social programmes that came to the fore. The right to a pension, the SUS (Unified Health System), increases in the minimum wage and social programmes such as \u201cBolsa Fam\u00edlia\u201d, \u201cP\u00e9-de-Meia\u201d and \u201cMinha Casa, Minha Vida\u201d, among others, were repeatedly presented as concrete reasons to vote. Preserving these policies made tangible what was at stake: income and access to health, housing and education. In short, a dignified life. The defence of public policies established links between government decisions and everyday experience. Their effects reach direct beneficiaries, families, communities and the professionals involved in their implementation. When their continuity is perceived as threatened, these experiences can become political arguments and motives for collective action.<\/p>\n

The \u201ctesoura\u00e7o\u201d (a sweeping round of spending cuts) touted by Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro fostered this perception of threat. His advocacy of spending cuts created an opening for Lula\u2019s campaign to shift the debate towards their consequences. Which expenditure would be reduced, which services would be affected and who would bear the costs of these choices? The political significance of this move lies in questioning the automatic legitimacy attributed to spending cuts and fiscal adjustment. The discussion of fiscal responsibility thus also comes to require an assessment of the State\u2019s social responsibilities.<\/p>\n

In a country as deeply unequal as Brazil, mobilisation in defence of these policies can be interpreted as recognition of their importance in guaranteeing decent living conditions and widening opportunities. This does not allow us to conclude that the electorate has embraced a uniform view of the role of the State. It does indicate, however, that the protection of certain policies was able to produce a significant electoral convergence. The defence of democracy thus acquired a concrete social content, tied to the preservation of rights and of the means to exercise them.<\/p>\n

The third vector was Lula\u2019s own leadership. His contribution must be considered because rejection of an opponent and the defence of public policies do not, by themselves, turn into a candidacy capable of assembling a majority. That conversion also depends on a leadership that offers a recognisable point of reference. Lula\u2019s life story and the hallmarks of his governments were that reference. His association with social inclusion policies made it possible to connect the defence of programmes with trust in someone identified with their creation, expansion or preservation. In the campaign, this leadership helped to broaden the mobilisation without requiring its participants to share uniform conceptions and projects of the State.<\/p>\n

Also worth highlighting is Lula\u2019s ability to bring the defence of national sovereignty into the electoral contest, in the face of the political and economic pressure exerted by Donald Trump\u2019s US administration and its closeness to the Bolsonaro family. By questioning, in the presidential debates, Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2019s political autonomy from US interests, Lula tied his criticism of Bolsonarism to the defence of national interests, especially on issues related to trade tariffs and the exploitation of strategic resources. This dimension of the campaign extended the reach of his message beyond the defence of social policies, associating his leadership with the assertion of the country\u2019s autonomy in the face of external interference.<\/p>\n

The combination of the three vectors helps to explain the intensity acquired by the link between streets and social networks, even though the infrastructure and repertoire of the forms of activism involved were themselves an important ingredient of the process. The mobilisations both activated and expanded support for Lula.<\/p>\n

The victory nevertheless leaves questions about the conditions facing the next government. The right and far right that supported Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro appear, at this early stage, more inclined to concentrate their opposition in Parliament, where they hold a majority, than to promote street mobilisations against the election result. Even so, the role of the Bolsonaro family in this scenario remains open, since the permanent activation of its social bases has been a central component of its political action. It is therefore not yet sufficiently clear how the relationship between the right\u2019s parliamentary action and the activation of Bolsonarist bases will unfold and, above all, what consequences it will have for the fourth Lula government.<\/p>\n

For Lula, on the other hand, a central challenge will be to channel the participatory energy of the second-round campaign into innovative and more lasting forms of dialogue with society. Brazil has a strong, internationally recognised architecture of institutional participation, such as the Management Councils and the Public Policy Conferences. These spaces have helped to formulate, monitor and improve many of the policies defended during the campaign. They must be defended and strengthened and, like any institution, are open to improvement. However, the participatory energy we saw emerge in the second round of the campaign cannot be channelled through these institutions. The new government\u2019s challenge will be to pluralise the points of connection between State and society, creating innovative forms of participation with lasting potential to channel that energy.<\/p>\n

\n

Carla Almeida<\/strong> \u2013 Professor at the State University of Maring\u00e1. Coordinator of the Research Group on Civil Society, Political Institutions and Democracy \u2013 SociDem\/UEM. Researcher at INCT-Participa and at the Observatory of Studies and Analyses of Santa Catarina Politics. Visiting researcher at CIES-Iscte.<\/p>\n

L\u00edgia Helena Hahn L\u00fcchmann<\/strong> \u2013 Retired full professor and volunteer in the Graduate Programme in Sociology and Political Science at the Federal University of Santa Catarina. Coordinator of the Observatory of Studies and Analyses of Santa Catarina Politics.<\/p>\n

Carla Giani Martelli<\/strong> \u2013 Professor at the Faculty of Sciences and Letters, UNESP\/Araraquara. Leader of the Study and Research Group on Participation and Democracy (GEPPADE). Researcher at INCT-Participa and at the Observatory of Studies and Analyses of Santa Catarina Politics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anti-Bolsonarism, the defence of public policies and Lula\u2019s leadership: Carla Almeida, L\u00edgia L\u00fcchmann and Carla Giani Martelli analyse the three vectors that sustained the second-round mobilisations and the challenges facing the new government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[316],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-en","category-316","description-off"],"yoast_head":"\nLula\u2019s victory: anti-Bolsonarism and public policies | Observat\u00f3rio da Democracia e da Representa\u00e7\u00e3o Pol\u00edtica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Carla Almeida, L\u00edgia L\u00fcchmann and Carla Giani Martelli analyse the three vectors behind Lula\u2019s 2026 victory: anti-Bolsonarism, public policies and 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