{"id":55780,"date":"2026-01-17T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/?p=55780"},"modified":"2026-10-13T22:31:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T22:31:56","slug":"suggested-reading-low-abstention-and-a-tight-race-at-the-polls-older-urban-and-university-educated-voters-decide-the-presidential-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/suggested-reading-low-abstention-and-a-tight-race-at-the-polls-older-urban-and-university-educated-voters-decide-the-presidential-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Suggested reading: Low abstention and a tight race at the polls. Older, urban and university-educated voters decide the presidential election"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>Low abstention and a tight race at the polls. Older, urban and university-educated voters decide the presidential election<\/h1>\n<p><i>Original text from the newspaper ECO<\/i><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55665\" src=\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna.jpg\" alt=\"Person casting a vote in a ballot box\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1067\" srcset=\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-391x260.jpg 391w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-1320x880.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna-1000x667.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On 17 January 2026, the newspaper ECO published an article on the presidential election that anticipated one of the closest races ever and a fall in abstention compared with 2021, when it reached a record high. The analysis draws on a Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation study coordinated by Jo\u00e3o Cancela and Jos\u00e9 Santana-Pereira.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Jos\u00e9 Santana-Pereira, a researcher at CIES-Iscte, turnout in presidential elections depends above all on how competitive the race is perceived to be: when no incumbent is running, mobilisation tends to be higher. He also notes that older voters vote more consistently, while young people, lower social classes and those without higher education participate less.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The study also shows that turnout is higher in urban and coastal areas and that the distance to the polling station affects the decision to vote.<\/p>\n<p><i>Read the <\/i><a style=\"font-style: italic;\" href=\"https:\/\/eco.sapo.pt\/2026\/01\/17\/abstencao-baixa-com-luta-renhida-nas-urnas-idosos-urbanos-e-doutores-decidem-presidenciais\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">full article in ECO<\/a><i>.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 17 January 2026, the newspaper ECO published an article on the presidential election that anticipated one of the closest races ever and a fall in abstention compared with 2021, when it reached a record high. The analysis draws on a Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation study coordinated by Jo\u00e3o Cancela and Jos\u00e9 Santana-Pereira.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55665,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[308],"tags":[407,409,408],"class_list":["post-55780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-on-press","tag-abstention","tag-jose-santana-pereira","tag-presidential-elections","category-308","description-off"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Low abstention and a tight presidential race | ODRP-Iscte<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 Santana-Pereira explains to ECO what shapes abstention in the 2026 presidential election: competitiveness, age, social class and territory.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/suggested-reading-low-abstention-and-a-tight-race-at-the-polls-older-urban-and-university-educated-voters-decide-the-presidential-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Low abstention and a tight presidential race | ODRP-Iscte\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 Santana-Pereira explains to ECO what shapes abstention in the 2026 presidential election: competitiveness, age, social class and territory.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/suggested-reading-low-abstention-and-a-tight-race-at-the-polls-older-urban-and-university-educated-voters-decide-the-presidential-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Observat\u00f3rio da Democracia e da Representa\u00e7\u00e3o Pol\u00edtica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/observatorio.democracia.representacao.politica\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-17T10:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-13T22:31:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/na-imprensa-voto-urna.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1067\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ObservatorioDemocracia-Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Observatorioda4\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Observatorioda4\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ObservatorioDemocracia-Team\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/suggested-reading-low-abstention-and-a-tight-race-at-the-polls-older-urban-and-university-educated-voters-decide-the-presidential-election\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/suggested-reading-low-abstention-and-a-tight-race-at-the-polls-older-urban-and-university-educated-voters-decide-the-presidential-election\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ObservatorioDemocracia-Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/observatorio-democracia.pt\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/ab1878e95a55730f5159ccf3d9ba4ba7\"},\"headline\":\"Suggested reading: Low abstention and a tight race at the polls. 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